Associations of CDH1 germline variant location and cancer phenotype in families with hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (HDGC).

INTRODUCTION: Hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (HDGC) is a cancer syndrome associated with variants in E-cadherin (CDH1), diffuse gastric cancer and lobular breast cancer. There is considerable heterogeneity in its clinical manifestations. This study aimed to determine associations between CDH1 germline variant status and clinical phenotypes of HDGC. METHODS: One hundred and fifty-two HDGC families, including six previously unreported families, were identified. CDH1 gene-specific guidelines released by the Clinical Genome Resource (ClinGen) CDH1 Variant Curation Expert Panel were applied for pathogenicity classification of truncating, missense and splice site CDH1 germline variants. We evaluated ORs between location of truncating variants of CDH1 and incidence of colorectal cancer, breast cancer and cancer at young age (gastric cancer at <40 or breast cancer <50 years of age). RESULTS: Frequency of truncating germline CDH1 variants varied across functional domains of the E-cadherin receptor gene and was highest in linker (0.05785 counts/base pair; p=0.0111) and PRE regions (0.10000; p=0.0059). Families with truncating CDH1 germline variants located in the PRE-PRO region were six times more likely to have family members affected by colorectal cancer (OR 6.20, 95% CI 1.79 to 21.48; p=0.004) compared with germline variants in other regions. Variants in the intracellular E-cadherin region were protective for cancer at young age (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.64; p=0.0071) and in the linker regions for breast cancer (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.99; p=0.0493). Different CDH1 genotypes were associated with different intracellular signalling activation levels including different p-ERK, p-mTOR and ß-catenin levels in early submucosal T1a lesions of HDGC families with different CDH1 variants. CONCLUSION: Type and location of CDH1 germline variants may help to identify families at increased risk for concomitant cancers that might benefit from individualised surveillance and intervention strategies.

Risk of HPV-16/18 Infections and Associated Cervical Abnormalities in Women Seropositive for Naturally Acquired Antibodies: Pooled Analysis Based on Control Arms of Two Large Clinical Trials.

Background: Studies on the role of antibodies produced after infection with human papillomavirus 18 (HPV-18) and subsequent protection from HPV-18 infection have been conflicting, mainly due to inadequate sample size. Methods: We pooled data from the control arms of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial and the PATRICIA trial. Using Poisson regression we compared the risk of newly detected 1-time HPV-18 infection, HPV-18 1-year persistent infection (12MPI), and HPV-18-associated atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or greater (ASC-US+) lesions between HPV-18 seropositive and seronegative women. Results: High HPV-18 antibodies at enrollment was associated with reduced subsequent HPV-18 detection (P trend = 0.001; relative rate [RR] = 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-1.01 for the third quartile; RR = 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94 for the fourth quartile, compared to seronegative). The risk of 12MPI showed a decreasing trend with increasing antibodies (P trend = 0.06; RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.29-1.77; RR = 0.42; 95% CI, 0.13-1.32 for the third and fourth quartiles, respectively). Lastly, we observed a significant decreased risk of HPV-18 ASC-US+ with increasing antibody (P trend = 0.01; RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-0.97 for the fourth quartile). We also observed a significant decreased risk of HPV-16 infection, 12MPI, and ASC-US+ with increasing HPV-16 antibody level. Conclusions: High HPV-18 naturally acquired antibodies were associated with partial protection from future HPV-18 infections and associated lesions. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00128661 and NCT001226810.

A mathematical model of case-ascertainment bias: Applied to case-control studies nested within a randomized screening trial.

When some individuals are screen-detected before the beginning of the study, but otherwise would have been diagnosed symptomatically during the study, this results in different case-ascertainment probabilities among screened and unscreened participants, referred to here as lead-time-biased case-ascertainment (LTBCA). In fact, this issue can arise even in risk-factor studies nested within a randomized screening trial; even though the screening intervention is randomly allocated to trial arms, there is no randomization to potential risk-factors and uptake of screening can differ by risk-factor strata. Under the assumptions that neither screening nor the risk factor affects underlying incidence and no other forms of bias operate, we simulate and compare the underlying cumulative incidence and that observed in the study due to LTBCA. The example used will be constructed from the randomized Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian cancer screening trial. The derived mathematical model is applied to simulating two nested studies to evaluate the potential for screening bias in observational lung cancer studies. Because of differential screening under plausible assumptions about preclinical incidence and duration, the simulations presented here show that LTBCA due to chest x-ray screening can significantly increase the estimated risk of lung cancer due to smoking by 1% and 50%. Traditional adjustment methods cannot account for this bias, as the influence screening has on observational study estimates involves events outside of the study observation window (enrollment and follow-up) that change eligibility for potential participants, thus biasing case ascertainment.

Genome-wide association study identifies the GLDC/IL33 locus associated with survival of osteosarcoma patients.

Survival rates for osteosarcoma, the most common primary bone cancer, have changed little over the past three decades and are particularly low for patients with metastatic disease. We conducted a multi-institutional genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify germline genetic variants associated with overall survival in 632 patients with osteosarcoma, including 523 patients of European ancestry and 109 from Brazil. We conducted a time-to-event analysis and estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards models, with and without adjustment for metastatic disease. The results were combined across the European and Brazilian case sets using a random-effects meta-analysis. The strongest association after meta-analysis was for rs3765555 at 9p24.1, which was inversely associated with overall survival (HR = 1.76; 95% CI 1.41-2.18, p = 4.84 × 10-7 ). After imputation across this region, the combined analysis identified two SNPs that reached genome-wide significance. The strongest single association was with rs55933544 (HR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.5-2.4; p = 1.3 × 10-8 ), which localizes to the GLDC gene, adjacent to the IL33 gene and was consistent across both the European and Brazilian case sets. Using publicly available data, the risk allele was associated with lower expression of IL33 and low expression of IL33 was associated with poor survival in an independent set of patients with osteosarcoma. In conclusion, we have identified the GLDC/IL33 locus on chromosome 9p24.1 as associated with overall survival in patients with osteosarcoma. Further studies are needed to confirm this association and shed light on the biological underpinnings of this susceptibility locus.

Analgesic use and risk of renal cell carcinoma: A case-control, cohort and meta-analytic assessment.

Analgesics are the most commonly consumed drugs worldwide. Evidence that analgesics increase kidney cancer risk has been mixed. We investigated the association between renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and analgesic use in a large population-based case-control study and a post-trial observational cohort study. Findings were used to update a recent meta-analytic review. We analyzed data from 1,217 RCC cases and 1,235 controls in the US Kidney Cancer Study and 98,807 participants in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO: n = 137 RCCs). Self-reported acetaminophen, aspirin and nonsteroid anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and duration information was assessed in relation to RCC. For the US Kidney Cancer Study, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using unconditional logistic regression. For PLCO, we computed hazard ratios (HRs) and 95%CIs using Cox regression. Among case-control participants, RCC risk was associated with over-the-counter acetaminophen use (OR = 1.35, 95%CI = 1.01-1.83). There was a positive trend with increasing duration (p-trend = 0.01), with a two-fold risk for use ≥10 years (OR = 2.01, 95%CI = 1.30-3.12). No association with prescription acetaminophen use was detected. In PLCO, acetaminophen use was also associated with increased RCC risk (HR = 1.68, 95%CI = 1.19-2.39), although elevated risk was absent among the few long-term users. No association with RCC risk was detected for aspirin or NSAIDs use in either study. An association between acetaminophen use and kidney cancer was supported by meta-analytic cohort (n = 4; summary relative risk = 1.34; 95%CI = 1.13-1.59; p-heterogeneity = 0.40) and case-control (n = 9, summary OR = 1.20; 95%CI = 1.01-1.42; p-heterogeneity = 0.05) findings. In brief, acetaminophen use may increase the risk of developing RCC.

Impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 vaccination on prevalent infections and rates of cervical lesions after excisional treatment.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus vaccines prevent human papillomavirus infection and cervical precancers. The impact of vaccinating women with a current infection or after treatment for an human papillomavirus-associated lesion is not fully understood. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether human papillomavirus-16/18 vaccination influences the outcome of infections present at vaccination and the rate of infection and disease after treatment of lesions. STUDY DESIGN: We included 1711 women (18-25 years) with carcinogenic human papillomavirus infection and 311 women of similar age who underwent treatment for cervical precancer and who participated in a community-based trial of the AS04-adjuvanted human papillomavirus-16/18 virus-like particle vaccine. Participants were randomized (human papillomavirus or hepatitis A vaccine) and offered 3 vaccinations over 6 months. Follow-up included annual visits (more frequently if clinically indicated), referral to colposcopy of high-grade and persistent low-grade lesions, treatment by loop electrosurgical excisional procedure when clinically indicated, and cytologic and virologic follow-up after treatment. Among women with human papillomavirus infection at the time of vaccination, we considered type-specific viral clearance, and development of cytologic (squamous intraepithelial lesions) and histologic (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia) lesions. Among treated women, we considered single-time and persistent human papillomavirus infection, squamous intraepithelial lesions, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater. Outcomes associated with infections absent before treatment also were evaluated. Infection-level analyses were performed and vaccine efficacy estimated. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 56.7 months (women with human papillomavirus infection) and 27.3 months (treated women). There was no evidence of vaccine efficacy to increase clearance of human papillomavirus infections or decrease incidence of cytologic/histologic abnormalities associated with human papillomavirus types present at enrollment. Vaccine efficacy for human papillomavirus 16/18 clearance and against human papillomavirus 16/18 progression from infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater were -5.4% (95% confidence interval -19,10) and 0.3% (95% confidence interval -69,41), respectively. Among treated women, 34.1% had oncogenic infection and 1.6% had cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater detected after treatment, respectively, and of these 69.8% and 20.0% were the result of new infections. We observed no significant effect of vaccination on rates of infection/lesions after treatment. Vaccine efficacy estimates for human papillomavirus 16/18 associated persistent infection and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater after treatment were 34.7% (95% confidence interval -131, 82) and -211% (95% confidence interval -2901, 68), respectively. We observed evidence for a partial and nonsignificant protective effect of vaccination against new infections absent before treatment. For incident human papillomavirus 16/18, human papillomavirus 31/33/45, and oncogenic human papillomavirus infections post-treatment, vaccine efficacy estimates were 57.9% (95% confidence interval -43, 88), 72.9% (95% confidence interval 29, 90), and 36.7% (95% confidence interval 1.5, 59), respectively. CONCLUSION: We find no evidence for a vaccine effect on the fate of detectable human papillomavirus infections. We show that vaccination does not protect against infections/lesions after treatment. Evaluation of vaccine protection against new infections after treatment and resultant lesions warrants further consideration in future studies.

Multivariate piecewise exponential survival modeling.

In this article, we develop a piecewise Poisson regression method to analyze survival data from complex sample surveys involving cluster-correlated, differential selection probabilities, and longitudinal responses, to conveniently draw inference on absolute risks in time intervals that are prespecified by investigators. Extensive simulations evaluate the developed methods with extensions to multiple covariates under various complex sample designs, including stratified sampling, sampling with selection probability proportional to a measure of size (PPS), and a multi-stage cluster sampling. We applied our methods to a study of mortality in men diagnosed with prostate cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial to investigate whether a biomarker available from biospecimens collected near time of diagnosis stratifies subsequent risk of death. Poisson regression coefficients and absolute risks of mortality (and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals) for prespecified age intervals by biomarker levels are estimated. We conclude with a brief discussion of the motivation, methods, and findings of the study.

Cross-protection of the Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Against Variants of Genetically Related High-Risk HPV Infections.

BACKGROUND: Results from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT) demonstrated partial cross-protection by the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, which targets HPV-16 and HPV-18, against HPV-31, -33, and -45 infection and an increased incidence of HPV-51 infection. METHODS: A study nested within the CVT intention-to-treat cohort was designed to assess high-risk HPV variant lineage-specific vaccine efficacy (VE). The 2 main end points were (1) long-term incident infections persisting for ≥2 years and/or progression to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (ie, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 [CIN 2/3]) and (2) incident transient infections lasting for <2 years. For efficiency, incident infections due to HPV-16, -18, -31, -33, -35, -45, and -51 resulting in persistent infection and/or CIN 2/3 were matched (ratio, 1:2) to the more-frequent transient viral infections, by HPV type. Variant lineages were determined by sequencing the upstream regulatory region and/or E6 region. RESULTS: VEs against persistent or transient infections with HPV-16, -18, -33, -35, -45, and -51 did not differ significantly by variant lineage. As the possible exception, VEs against persistent infection and/or CIN 2/3 due to HPV-31 A/B and HPV-31C variants were -7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], -33.9% to 0%) and 86.4% (95% CI, 65.1%-97.1%), respectively (P = .02 for test of equal VE). No difference in VE was observed by variant among transient HPV-31 infections (P = .68). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, sequence variation at the variant level does not appear to explain partial cross-protection by the bivalent HPV vaccine.

A case-control study of occupational sunlight exposure and renal cancer risk.

Epidemiological evidence of a relationship between vitamin D and kidney cancer risk has been inconsistent despite experimental data indicating that vitamin D and its metabolites may inhibit carcinogenesis. Previously we reported an inverse association between renal cell carcinoma (RCC) risk and occupational ultraviolet (UV) exposure among European men. In this study, we examined the association between occupational UV exposure and RCC risk among US residents and investigated whether this association varied by race and sex. Lifetime occupational data for 1,217 RCC cases and 1,235 controls in a population-based case-control study, conducted from 2002 to 2007, were assessed for occupational UV exposure. We evaluated exposure metrics in quartiles based on control exposure levels and calculated associations between RCC risk and occupational UV exposure using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for sex, race, body mass index, smoking, hypertension, center, education, family history of cancer and dietary vitamin D intake. A general pattern of decreasing RCC risk with increasing UV exposure was observed. Cases had significantly lower cumulative occupational UV exposure than controls (fourth quartile vs. first: odds ratio = 0.74 [95% confidence interval = 0.56-0.99], p-trend = 0.03). Similar results were observed for other UV exposure metrics. The association with occupational UV exposure was stronger for women than for men, but did not differ by race. Our findings suggest an inverse association between occupational UV exposure and RCC, particularly among women. Given the sex finding discrepancies in this study versus our previous study, additional research is need to clarify whether the protective effects of occupational UV exposure and RCC risk are real.

Multisite HPV16/18 Vaccine Efficacy Against Cervical, Anal, and Oral HPV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Previous Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT) reports separately demonstrated vaccine efficacy against HPV16 and HPV18 (HPV16/18) infections at the cervical, anal, and oral regions; however, the combined overall multisite efficacy (protection at all three sites) and vaccine efficacy among women infected with HPV16 or HPV18 prior to vaccination are less known. METHODS: Women age 18 to 25 years from the CVT were randomly assigned to the HPV16/18 vaccine (Cervarix) or a hepatitis A vaccine. Cervical, oral, and anal specimens were collected at the four-year follow-up visit from 4186 women. Multisite and single-site vaccine efficacies (VEs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for one-time detection of point prevalent HPV16/18 in the cervical, anal, and oral regions four years after vaccination. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: The multisite woman-level vaccine efficacy was highest among "naïve" women (HPV16/18 seronegative and cervical HPV high-risk DNA negative at vaccination) (vaccine efficacy = 83.5%, 95% CI = 72.1% to 90.8%). Multisite woman-level vaccine efficacy was also demonstrated among women with evidence of a pre-enrollment HPV16 or HPV18 infection (seropositive for HPV16 and/or HPV18 but cervical HPV16/18 DNA negative at vaccination) (vaccine efficacy = 57.8%, 95% CI = 34.4% to 73.4%), but not in those with cervical HPV16 and/or HPV18 DNA at vaccination (anal/oral HPV16/18 VE = 25.3%, 95% CI = -40.4% to 61.1%). Concordant HPV16/18 infections at two or three sites were also less common in HPV16/18-infected women in the HPV vaccine vs control arm (7.4% vs 30.4%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: This study found high multisite vaccine efficacy among "naïve" women and also suggests the vaccine may provide protection against HPV16/18 infections at one or more anatomic sites among some women infected with these types prior to HPV16/18 vaccination.

Deep sequencing of HPV16 genomes: A new high-throughput tool for exploring the carcinogenicity and natural history of HPV16 infection.

For unknown reasons, there is huge variability in risk conferred by different HPV types and, remarkably, strong differences even between closely related variant lineages within each type. HPV16 is a uniquely powerful carcinogenic type, causing approximately half of cervical cancer and most other HPV-related cancers. To permit the large-scale study of HPV genome variability and precancer/cancer, starting with HPV16 and cervical cancer, we developed a high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) whole-genome method. We designed a custom HPV16 AmpliSeq™ panel that generated 47 overlapping amplicons covering 99% of the genome sequenced on the Ion Torrent Proton platform. After validating with Sanger, the current "gold standard" of sequencing, in 89 specimens with concordance of 99.9%, we used our NGS method and custom annotation pipeline to sequence 796 HPV16-positive exfoliated cervical cell specimens. The median completion rate per sample was 98.0%. Our method enabled us to discover novel SNPs, large contiguous deletions suggestive of viral integration (OR of 27.3, 95% CI 3.3-222, P=0.002), and the sensitive detection of variant lineage coinfections. This method represents an innovative high-throughput, ultra-deep coverage technique for HPV genomic sequencing, which, in turn, enables the investigation of the role of genetic variation in HPV epidemiology and carcinogenesis.

Effect of bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination on pregnancy outcomes: long term observational follow-up in the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine on miscarriage. DESIGN: Observational long term follow-up of a randomized, double blinded trial combined with an independent unvaccinated population based cohort. SETTING: Single center study in Costa Rica. PARTICIPANTS: 7466 women in the trial and 2836 women in the unvaccinated cohort enrolled at the end of the randomized trial and in parallel with the observational trial component. INTERVENTION: Women in the trial were assigned to receive three doses of bivalent HPV vaccine (n=3727) or the control hepatitis A vaccine (n=3739). Crossover bivalent HPV vaccination occurred in the hepatitis A vaccine arm at the end of the trial. Women in the unvaccinated cohort received (n=2836) no vaccination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk of miscarriage, defined by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as fetal loss within 20 weeks of gestation, in pregnancies exposed to bivalent HPV vaccination in less than 90 days and any time from vaccination compared with pregnancies exposed to hepatitis A vaccine and pregnancies in the unvaccinated cohort. RESULTS: Of 3394 pregnancies conceived at any time since bivalent HPV vaccination, 381 pregnancies were conceived less than 90 days from vaccination. Unexposed pregnancies comprised 2507 pregnancies conceived after hepatitis A vaccination and 720 conceived in the unvaccinated cohort. Miscarriages occurred in 451 (13.3%) of all exposed pregnancies, in 50 (13.1%) of the pregnancies conceived less than 90 days from bivalent HPV vaccination, and in 414 (12.8%) of the unexposed pregnancies, of which 316 (12.6%) were in the hepatitis A vaccine group and 98 (13.6%) in the unvaccinated cohort. The relative risk of miscarriage for pregnancies conceived less than 90 days from vaccination compared with all unexposed pregnancies was 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.34, one sided P=0.436) in unadjusted analyses. Results were similar after adjusting for age at vaccination (relative risk 1.15, one sided P=0.17), age at conception (1.03, P=0.422), and calendar year (1.06, P=0.358), and in stratified analyses. Among pregnancies conceived at any time from bivalent HPV vaccination, exposure was not associated with an increased risk of miscarriage overall or in subgroups, except for miscarriages at weeks 13-20 of gestation (relative risk 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.77, one sided P=0.017). CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence that bivalent HPV vaccination affects the risk of miscarriage for pregnancies conceived less than 90 days from vaccination. The increased risk estimate for miscarriages in a subgroup of pregnancies conceived any time after vaccination may be an artifact of a thorough set of sensitivity analyses, but since a genuine association cannot totally be ruled out, this signal should nevertheless be explored further in existing and future studies.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00128661 and NCT01086709.

A Genome-Wide Scan Identifies Variants in NFIB Associated with Metastasis in Patients with Osteosarcoma.

UNLABELLED: Metastasis is the leading cause of death in patients with osteosarcoma, the most common pediatric bone malignancy. We conducted a multistage genome-wide association study of osteosarcoma metastasis at diagnosis in 935 osteosarcoma patients to determine whether germline genetic variation contributes to risk of metastasis. We identified an SNP, rs7034162, in NFIB significantly associated with metastasis in European osteosarcoma cases, as well as in cases of African and Brazilian ancestry (meta-analysis of all cases: P = 1.2 × 10(-9); OR, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.83-3.24). The risk allele was significantly associated with lowered NFIB expression, which led to increased osteosarcoma cell migration, proliferation, and colony formation. In addition, a transposon screen in mice identified a significant proportion of osteosarcomas harboring inactivating insertions in Nfib and with lowered NFIB expression. These data suggest that germline genetic variation at rs7034162 is important in osteosarcoma metastasis and that NFIB is an osteosarcoma metastasis susceptibility gene. SIGNIFICANCE: Metastasis at diagnosis in osteosarcoma is the leading cause of death in these patients. Here we show data that are supportive for the NFIB locus as associated with metastatic potential in osteosarcoma.

Efficacy of fewer than three doses of an HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine: combined analysis of data from the Costa Rica Vaccine and PATRICIA Trials.

BACKGROUND: There is some evidence to suggest that one or two doses of the HPV vaccine provides similar protection to the three-dose regimen. The main aim of the study was to ascertain HPV-16/18 vaccine efficacy in both full and naive cohorts and to explore protection conferred against non-vaccine HPV types, by number of doses received. METHODS: Summary data from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT; NCT00128661) and ~the PATRICIA trial (NCT001226810), two phase 3, double-blind, randomised controlled clinical trials of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in young women, were combined in a post-hoc analysis (GlaxoSmithKline [GSK] e-track number 202142) to investigate the efficacy of fewer than three doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine after 4 years of follow-up. Women were randomly assigned to receive three doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine or to a control vaccine; yet, some received fewer doses. After exclusion of women with less than 12 months of follow-up or those who were HPV-16/18 DNA-positive at enrolment (for the HPV-16/18 endpoint), we calculated vaccine efficacy against one-time detection of incident HPV infections after three, two, and one dose(s). The primary study endpoint was one-time detection of first incident HPV-16/18 infections accumulated during the follow-up phase. FINDINGS: We assessed vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infection in the modified total vaccinated cohort (22 327 received three doses, 1185 two doses, 543 one dose). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infections for three doses was 77·0% (95% CI 74·7-79·1), two doses was 76·0% (62·0-85·3), and one dose was 85·7% (70·7-93·7). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-31/33/45 infections for three doses was 59·7% (56·0-63·0), two doses was 37·7% (12·4-55·9), and one dose was 36·6% (-5·4 to 62·2). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infection for two-dose women who received their second dose at 1 month was 75·3% (54·2-87·5) and 82·6% (42·3-96·1) for those who received the second dose at 6 months (CVT data only). Vaccine efficacy against HPV-31/33/45 for two-dose women who received their second dose at 6 months (68·1%, 27·0-87·0; CVT data only), but not those receiving it at one month (10·1%, -42·0 to 43·3), was similar to the three-dose group. INTERPRETATION: 4 years after vaccination of women aged 15-25 years, one and two doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine seem to protect against cervical HPV-16/18 infections, similar to the protection provided by the three-dose schedule. Two doses separated by 6 months additionally provided some cross-protection. These data argue for a direct assessment of one-dose efficacy of the HPV-16/18 vaccine. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health Office of Research on Women's Health, and Ministry of Health of Costa Rica (CVT); GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA (PATRICIA).

Time to First Morning Cigarette and Risk of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Smokers in the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: Time to first cigarette (TTFC) after waking is an indicator of nicotine dependence. The association between TTFC and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the third leading cause of death in the United States, has not yet been reported. METHODS: We investigated the cross-sectional association between TTFC and prevalent COPD among 6,108 current smokers in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. COPD was defined as a self-reported diagnosis of emphysema, chronic bronchitis, or both. Current smokers in PLCO reported TTFC, the amount of time they typically waited before smoking their first cigarette of the day after waking, in four categories: ≤ 5, 6-30, 31-60, or > 60 minutes. We used logistic regression models to investigate the association between TTFC and prevalent COPD with adjustments for age, gender, race, education, and smoking (cigarettes/day, years smoked during lifetime, pack-years, age at smoking initiation), and prior lung cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: COPD was reported by 19% of these 6,108 smokers. Individuals with the shortest TTFC had the greatest risk of COPD; compared to those with the longest TTFC (> 60 minutes) the adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for COPD were 1.48 (95% CI, 1.15-1.91), 1.64 (95% CI, 1.29-2.08), 2.18 (95% CI, 1.65-2.87) for those with TTFC 31-60 minutes, 6-30 minutes, and ≤ 5 minutes, respectively (P-trend < 0.0001). The association between TTFC and emphysema was similar to that for bronchitis, albeit the ORs were slightly stronger for chronic bronchitis; comparing TTFC ≤5 minutes to > 60 minutes, the adjusted OR (95% CI) was 2.29 (1.69-3.12) for emphysema and 2.99 (1.95-4.59) for chronic bronchitis. CONCLUSIONS: Current smokers with shorter TTFC have increased risk of COPD compared to those with longer TTFC, even after comprehensive adjustment for established smoking covariates. Future epidemiologic studies, including prospective designs, should incorporate TTFC to better assess disease risk and evaluate the potential utility of TTFC as a COPD screening tool for smokers in the clinical setting.

Prediagnostic Serum Organochlorine Concentrations and Metastatic Prostate Cancer: A Nested Case-Control Study in the Norwegian Janus Serum Bank Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Organochlorine (OC) insecticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been shown to have estrogenic, antiestrogenic, or antiandrogenic properties; as a result, the impact of exposure to these compounds and risk of hormonal cancers, such as prostate cancer, is a concern. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a nested case-control study, using prospectively collected serum, to estimate associations between OC exposures and metastatic prostate cancer in a population-based cohort from Norway. METHODS: Sera from 150 cases and 314 controls matched on date of blood draw, age at blood draw, and region was used to determine concentrations of 11 OC pesticide metabolites and 34 PCB congeners. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for quartiles of lipid-corrected metabolite levels were calculated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Metastatic prostate cancer was two times as likely among men with serum concentrations of oxychlordane in the highest quartile compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR = 2.03; 95% CI: 1.03, 4.03; p-trend 0.05). Elevated but nonsignificant ORs were estimated for the highest versus lowest quartile of heptachlor epoxide, HCB, and mirex, although these exposures were correlated with oxychlordane. Findings for specific PCB congeners showed a significant inverse association between natural log-transformed lipid-adjusted PCB 44 and metastatic prostate cancer (OR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.97; p-trend = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the importance of estimating associations with specific OC chemicals and suggests a possible role of OC insecticides and PCBs in the etiology of metastatic prostate cancer. CITATION: Koutros S, Langseth H, Grimsrud TK, Barr DB, Vermeulen R, Portengen L, Wacholder S, Beane Freeman LE, Blair A, Hayes RB, Rothman N, Engel LS. 2015. Prediagnostic serum organochlorine concentrations and metastatic prostate cancer: a nested case-control study in the Norwegian Janus Serum Bank cohort. Environ Health Perspect 123:867-872; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408245.

Lung cancer prognosis before and after recurrence in a population-based setting.

BACKGROUND: Population-based estimates of absolute risk of lung cancer recurrence, and of mortality rates after recurrence, can inform clinical management. METHODS: We evaluated prognostic factors for recurrences and survival in 2098 lung cancer case patients from the general population of Lombardy, Italy, from 2002 to 2005. We conducted survival analyses and estimated absolute risks separately for stage IA to IIIA surgically treated and stage IIIB to IV non-surgically treated patients. RESULTS: Absolute risk of metastases exceeded that of local recurrence in every stage and cell type, highlighting the systemic threat of lung cancer. In stage I, the probability of dying within the first year after diagnosis was 2.7%, but it was 48.3% within first year after recurrence; in stage IV, the probabilities were 57.3% and 80.6%, respectively. Over half the patients died within one year of first metastasis. Although in stages IA to IB about one-third of patients had a recurrence, stage IIA patients had a recurrence risk (61.2%) similar to stage IIB (57.9%) and IIIA (62.8%) patients. Risk of brain metastases in stage IA to IIIA surgically treated non-small cell lung cancer patients increased with increasing tumor grade. Absolute risk of recurrence was virtually identical in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma patients. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study provides clinically useful estimates of risks of lung cancer recurrence and mortality that are applicable to the general population. These data highlight the need for more effective adjuvant treatments overall and within specific subgroups. The estimated risks of various endpoints are useful for designing clinical trials, whose power depends on absolute numbers of events.

Rationale and design of a long term follow-up study of women who did and did not receive HPV 16/18 vaccination in Guanacaste, Costa Rica.

The Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT) was a randomized clinical trial conducted between 2004 and 2010, which randomized 7466 women aged 18 to 25 to receive the bivalent HPV-16/18 vaccine or control Hepatitis-A vaccine. Participants were followed for 4 years with cross-over vaccination at the study end. In 2010 the long term follow-up (LTFU) study was initiated to evaluate the 10-year impact of HPV-16/18 vaccination, determinants of the immune response, and HPV natural history in a vaccinated population. Herein, the rationale, design and methods of the LTFU study are described, which actively follows CVT participants in the HPV-arm 6 additional years at biennial intervals (3 additional study visits for 10 years of total follow-up), or more often if clinically indicated. According to the initial commitment, women in the Hepatitis-A arm were offered HPV vaccination at cross-over; they were followed 2 additional years and exited from the study. 92% of eligible CVT women accepted participation in LTFU. To provide underlying rates of HPV acquisition and cervical disease among unvaccinated women to compare with the HPV-arm during LTFU, a new unvaccinated control group (UCG) of women who are beyond the age generally recommended for routine vaccination was enrolled, and will be followed by cervical cancer screening over 6 years. To form the UCG, 5000 women were selected from a local census, of whom 2836 women (61% of eligible women) agreed to participate. Over 90% of participants complied with an interview, blood and cervical specimen collection. Evaluation of comparability between the original (Hepatitis-A arm of CVT) and new (UCG) control groups showed that women's characteristics, as well as their predicted future risk for cervical HPV acquisition, were similar, thus validating use of the UCG. LTFU is poised to comprehensively address many important questions related to long-term effects of prophylactic HPV vaccines.

HPV16 methyl-haplotypes determined by a novel next-generation sequencing method are associated with cervical precancer.

We have developed and evaluated a next-generation bisulfite sequencing (NGS) assay to distinguish HPV16 cervical precancer (CIN2-3; N=59) from HPV16-positive transient infections (N=40). Cervical DNA was isolated and treated with bisulfite and HPV16 methylation was quantified by (i) amplification with barcoded primers and massively parallel single molecule sequencing and (ii) site-specific pyrosequencing. Assays were evaluated for agreement using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Odds ratios (OR) for high methylation vs. low methylation were calculated. Single site pyrosequencing and NGS data were correlated (ICC=0.61) and both indicated hypermethylation was associated with precancer (ORs of 2-37). Concordant NGS and pyrosequencing results yieled ORs that were stronger when compared with using either assay separately. Within the L1 region, the ORs for CIN2-3 were 14.3 and 22.4 using pyrosequencing and NGS assays, respectively; when both methods agreed the OR was 153. NGS assays provide methylation haplotypes, termed methyl-haplotypes from single molecule reads: cases had increased methyl-haplotypes with ≥1 methylated CpG site(s) per fragment compared with controls, particularly in L1 (p=3.0×10(-8)). The maximum discrimination of cases from controls for a L1 methyl-haplotype had an AUC of 0.89 corresponding to a sensitivity of 92.5% and a specificity of 73.1%. The strengthening of the OR when the two assays were concordant suggests the true association of CpG methylation with precancer is stronger than with either assay. As cervical cancer prevention moves to DNA testing methods, DNA based biomarkers, such as HPV methylation could serve as a reflex strategy to identify women at high risk for cervix cancer.

A genome-wide pleiotropy scan for prostate cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: No single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) specific for aggressive prostate cancer have been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). OBJECTIVE: To test if SNPs associated with other traits may also affect the risk of aggressive prostate cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: SNPs implicated in any phenotype other than prostate cancer (p≤10(-7)) were identified through the catalog of published GWAS and tested in 2891 aggressive prostate cancer cases and 4592 controls from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3). The 40 most significant SNPs were followed up in 4872 aggressive prostate cancer cases and 24,534 controls from the Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL) consortium. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for aggressive prostate cancer were estimated. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 4666 SNPs were evaluated by the BPC3. Two signals were seen in regions already reported for prostate cancer risk. rs7014346 at 8q24.21 was marginally associated with aggressive prostate cancer in the BPC3 trial (p=1.6×10(-6)), whereas after meta-analysis by PRACTICAL the summary OR was 1.21 (95% CI 1.16-1.27; p=3.22×10(-18)). rs9900242 at 17q24.3 was also marginally associated with aggressive disease in the meta-analysis (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.94; p=2.5×10(-6)). Neither of these SNPs remained statistically significant when conditioning on correlated known prostate cancer SNPs. The meta-analysis by BPC3 and PRACTICAL identified a third promising signal, marked by rs16844874 at 2q34, independent of known prostate cancer loci (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.19; p=4.67×10(-5)); it has been shown that SNPs correlated with this signal affect glycine concentrations. The main limitation is the heterogeneity in the definition of aggressive prostate cancer between BPC3 and PRACTICAL. CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify new SNPs for aggressive prostate cancer. However, rs16844874 may provide preliminary genetic evidence on the role of the glycine pathway in prostate cancer etiology. PATIENT SUMMARY: We evaluated whether genetic variants associated with several traits are linked to the risk of aggressive prostate cancer. No new such variants were identified.